Americans saw a chance to save a few dollars on their monthly mortgage payments and took it, pushing refinance applications up 40% versus a year ago.

However, after cutting interest rates three times last year, the Fed has held rates steady in 2025 to observe how President Trump’s policies on trade, immigration and government spending will affect the economy. The central bank is expected to resume cutting rates as early as September, but this will not immediately result in lower mortgage rates.

“Rates typically move higher if job openings are higher than expected, all else equal,” wrote Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily, adding that this data-driven volatility is nothing compared with what could be seen on Thursday following the government’s release of the monthly employment report.