The 2024 Election’s Other Big Loser: Prediction Markets
Prediction markets, exchange-traded markets where participants can bet on the outcomes of future events, failed to provide reliable forecasting during the 2024 election.
‘Prediction markets’ set to pay out $450M to election bettors
Following Donald Trump’s election victory, thousands of bettors anticipate a potential $450 million payout from online betting sites, says Reuters. As
Besides Trump, prediction markets might have been US election’s biggest winner
US voters Tuesday (5 November) decisively sent Donald Trump back to the White House for a second presidential term after four years away. But perhaps the next biggest winners from the election were prediction markets, the derivatives exchanges that allowed the country to stake legal wagers on the election for the first time.
Where prediction markets stand hours before first returns
Senate Republicans look poised to recapture control of the Senate for the first time since 2021, according to the prediction markets. Polymarket shows Democrats have a mere 18% chance of holding the Senate, while political gamblers on Kalshi are giving ...
Crypto prediction markets see Trump leading ahead of Harris on election eve
Crypto-fueled prediction markets show Trump leading Harris in 2024 US election betting. Polymarket and Kalshi draw billions in wagers despite skepticism.
Trump’s odds on prediction markets surge above 90% as election results tilt his way
Betting markets took a sharp turn toward Donald Trump on Tuesday night as the first states were called in the presidential election. So far, reliably Republican and Democratic states have fallen into Donald Trump's and Kamala Harris's columns.
The Election’s Real Winner Is the Stock Market
While the nation was focused on politics, the U.S. stock market surged. The political news—following media speculation that the outcome would be unknown for days, possibly sparking an armed insurrection—overshadowed the markets.
Who Did Get the Election Right: the Betting Markets
For many people, the prevailing feeling upon learning that Donald Trump has once again won the presidency may be shock. For weeks, the polls have predicted a tight race, but in the end it was the betting markets that called the race correctly.
Prediction markets price in nearly 90% odds for Trump as election results tilt his way
According to Kalshi, Trump’s odds of winning jumped to 86%. On the IBKR Forecast Trader, Trump’s odds soared to 89%.
The false premise of prediction markets
Prediction markets have been around for a long time. 16th century Italians placed bets on who the next Pope would be, and election betting in the U.S. goes (at least) as far back as the late 1800s. Amid the uncertain frenzy of major current events,
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour on Prediction Markets’ Big Night: ‘We Even Overtook Pornhub’
Prediction markets like Kalshi beat pollsters in forecasting the 2024 US election. Mansour now says financial marketplaces ...
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Presidential prediction markets: Here's when Kalshi and Polymarket will pay out
The popularity of prediction markets (for gambling on politics) is a new phenomenon in the United States, and who pays out ...
Political Betting Markets See Vindication in Trump Victory
Prediction markets, which surged to prominence during the presidential campaign, started reflecting a likely Trump win ...
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What betting markets got right and wrong about Trump’s victory
In general, markets gave shorter odds to Donald Trump, who won comfortably, than would have been implied by the neck-and-neck ...
Kalshi election betting odds: Do bettors pick Trump or Harris? What we know on Election Day
Election betting is now legal in the U.S. Do Kalshi betting odds predict a Harris or a Trump win? What to know as Ohioans ...
How Late Can You Bet On The US Election Through Polymarket, Kalshi? Everything You Need To Know (UPDATED)
Polymarket and Kalshi are popular prediction markets for the 2024 election, but bettors should understand market rules before ...
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Prediction Market Kalshi to Supply Price Data for Crypto Oracle Stork
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Stocks Soar, Dollar Jumps as Trump’s Win Reverberates Through Markets