In the weeks leading up to the 2024 presidential election, what appeared to be a small group of traders dumped millions of dollars into Polymarket, betting that Donald Trump would win. It turns out it was just one French whale who had pushed tens of millions of dollars into the market,

In general, markets gave shorter odds to Donald Trump, who won comfortably, than would have been implied by the neck-and-neck polls or political models, like the one published by The Economist. On Polymarket Mr Trump’s chances of victory never dipped far below 50%,

Tuesday night's election returns were a shocker if you only watched CNN. But not if you'd looked at the betting all along.