As Ukrainian drones strike deep into Russian territory, they are disrupting day-to-day life and reminding Russians that the war is not confined to the trenches.

War experts believe Moscow is planning a summer offensive in Ukraine. Economic and military pressures closer to home could end up pushing Moscow into peace talks. A slowdown in inflation, declining industrial output and consumer spending all point to a slowdown in the Russian economy.

Trump’s lead envoy to Ukraine and Russia, Steve Witkoff, has had similar moments of confusion. In an interview in March, he could not name the regions over which the war is being fought. “These so-called four regions,” he said, struggling to recall them. “Donbas, Crimea... You know the names.”

Russia is still refusing to sign up to an unconditional comprehensive ceasefire. It has no intention of returning any of the Ukrainian land it has seized, occupied and claims to have annexed. On the contrary: it's pushing for more.

Moscow’s battlefield edge is waning, experts say. But President Donald Trump seems disinclined to ramp up pressure on the Kremlin to end the war in Ukraine.

This week's prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine was the largest since the war’s onset. But skepticism of a lasting truce, and President Trump’s peace-making, remains. Bridget Brink resigned as ambassador to Ukraine in April,

On Friday, Ukraine and Russia had each handed over 390 soldiers and civilians in the biggest prisoner exchange since Russia launched its full-scale assault in February 2022. Both countries have each agreed to swap 1,000 prisoners, with another exchange expected on Sunday.